Análisis de la victoria de Obama

A continuación adjunto una sección de un artículo que escribí hace unos meses analizando la victoria de Obama.  Esta en ingles… pero es bastante explicativo.


The Democrats won the 2008 presidential election by what it is considered to be a wide margin of 7.7% of the total casted votes from the Republicans. Voter turnout for this particular election was the highest in 40 years.

The New York Times National Exit Polls has provided information that is useful in studying and analyzing the details of the 2008 election results.  

First of all, it is interesting to note that the male voters basically split down the middle, 49% to Obama 48% to McCain.  That shows a 7% decrease of male voters for the Republicans from the 2004 elections.  As for the women voters, the Democrats won with a significant 56% to 43% lead.  Again in this section the Republicans decreased their share by 5% from the 2004 elections.

Women and young voters were among the key drivers for Obama´s victory. Likewise, minorities voted in large numbers for Obama (Hispanics, African Americans and Asians), representing 24% of the total votes cast.  95% of African Americans voted for Obama. Obama also received twice as many Hispanic votes (67% to McCain´s 31%) and Asian votes (62% Obama to 35% McCain) as the Republican candidate.

The analysis of the voting distribution by age brackets is what I believe to be the most compelling area of data that we can use to explain Obama´s 2008 victory.  The electorate between the ages of 18-29 (the “young voters”) voted 66% for Obama and 32% for McCain.  This age bracket represented 18% of the total 2008 electorate.   But the most influential age bracket was that of the 30-44 year olds, which represented 29% of the total electorate.  Obama received 52% of the votes while McCain had 46%.  This 6% difference completely reversed the tendency from the 2004 elections, where the Republicans won this age bracket by 9% over the Democrats.  This means that in a period of 4 years, approximately 15% of the voters aged 30-44 could be considered to be swing or persuadable voters.  This tendency reversal in the 2008 elections for this specific age group played a key role for Obama´s victory.   On the other hand, the results for voters between the ages 45-59 and 60 and older basically remained at the same percentages in comparison to the 2004 figures.

First time voters voted 2 to 1 for the Democrats, with a clear 15% decline for the Republicans in comparison with its 2004 first time voters results.  

Geographically, two regions experienced a significant reversal for the Republicans.  The Midwest, where the Republicans won in 2004 by a 2% margin over the Democrats, was reversed for the Democrats with overwhelming force by 54% for Obama to 44% for McCain. The West region of the country was won by Obama by a 17% difference.  The Democrats barely won this region b a 1% margin in the 2004 elections. 

Eduardo Baeza



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